Prediction Markets Bypassed Kentucky Derby Over Legal Risk

(AsiaGameHub) –   In a move that has surprised many, prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket have opted out of the Kentucky Derby this year, despite a recent history of offering contracts on a wide range of events from politics to sports.

Both firms declined to list a market for the annual Derby, a premier horse race held at Churchill Downs that consistently attracts enormous betting activity.

“There Is a Door That Could Be Opened”

Polymarket made a short-lived attempt to open a market for the Derby last week, but it was quickly taken down. Churchill Downs confirmed the platform removed the offering following a request.

“We contacted Polymarket and requested the removal of the wagers,” Churchill Downs spokesperson Breck Thomas-Ross informed ESPN. “Polymarket agreed to the request.”

Kalshi, for its part, did not announce any intention to facilitate trading on the race.

This reluctance appears unexpected considering the aggressive expansion of prediction markets into sports. Industry analysts, however, cite a major legal obstacle: the Interstate Horseracing Act. This federal law grants racetracks and state authorities considerable authority over horse race betting.

“The law is currently quite explicit about what [prediction markets] can do without obtaining consent from our sport,” stated Tom Rooney, president of the National Thoroughbred Racing Association.

“Consent from a racetrack, a state gaming commission, or a horseman’s group could open a door. That consent has not been granted at this time.”

“The Wagering Is the Event”

Rooney has also cautioned federal regulators that permitting these markets could damage the horse racing industry, which depends on betting income to fund purses, track operations, and breeding initiatives.

“The betting activity is the central focus of the Kentucky Derby,” commented John Holden. “The primary reason most attendees go to the Derby is to wager on the race.”

The previous year’s Derby saw record-breaking betting volume, with wagers totaling hundreds of millions of dollars. This revenue is channeled directly back into the sport via taxes and revenue-sharing deals.

According to experts, prediction markets pose a threat to this financial model. A migration of betting to these platforms would reduce the amount of money returning to the horse racing industry.

“If a significant number of people turn to these prediction markets, the racetracks would face severe financial difficulties,” explained economist Thomas Lambert.

The Derby, held on May 1-2, 2026, was won by the longshot Golden Tempo, a horse with 23-1 odds. Renegade, Ocelli, and Chief Wallabee finished behind the winner.

Cherie DeVaux, the trainer of Golden Tempo, became the first woman to train a Kentucky Derby winner.